Abstract

The use of scenarios to evaluate restoration effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) is fundamental to improve restoration practices. Here we developed a systematic review to verify the existence of gaps and limitations in the use of scenarios for environmental restoration, and assess the state of the science of “restoration scenarios” and implications for future research. From 419 studies reviewed, most were held in developed countries, using exploratory scenarios at the regional scale, actively restoring ES and habitat at “habitat, ecosystems or communities” at landscape level, targeting forests and fragmented landscapes. The main gaps we identified were: few studies in tropical, marine, and urban environments, despite their importance for biodiversity and ES; few reports on global scales using target-seeking approach, despite the existence of global targets; small number of studies considered invertebrates and invasive species, neglecting many ecosystem services and disservices; lack of participatory and cost-effectiveness studies, revealing a disconnection between restoration research and socioeconomic context. The gaps identified might prevent the widespread use of scenarios for restoration planning, particularly the limited scales of analysis, the lack of participatory approaches, and weak cost consideration. We encourage the use of target-seeking scenarios, with clear objectives, stimulating collaboration among stakeholders seeking cost-effective restoration alternatives.